By Paul Ploumis 07 Sep 2015 Last updated at 03:05:29 GMT
Kitco weekly gold survey predicts lack of clear direction to gold prices next week.
(Kitco News) - Uncertainty is expected to continue to grip the gold market during next week’s shortened trading period, with no clear direction for prices among retail investors and market professionals, according to the latest Kitco News Wall Street vs. Main Street Gold Survey.
Comex December gold futures are preparing to end its second consecutive week in negative territory, showing losses of more than 1%. However, prices have managed to support above key levels around $1,117 an ounce.
Interest appears to be waning in the gold market as Kitco saw its lowest participation in the online survey, with market bulls having a slight advantage. This week, 159 people voted in the weekly online gold survey. Among the participants, 70 people, or 44%, are bullish on gold next week; 61 voters, or 38%, are bearish on the yellow metal; and 28 people, or 18%, are neutral. This is has been one of the closest votes among retail investors in Kitco’s new survey.
This is the second week that results have been relatively close, with the previous survey showing 43% of participants expected to see lower prices.
The results of Kitco’s market professional survey were mixed. Out of 35 market experts contacted, 17 responded, of which eight, or 47%, said they expect to see higher prices next week. At the same time, five professionals, or 29%, said they see lower prices, and four people, or 24%, are neutral on gold. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts.
The Federal Reserve continues to dominate the marketplace as many traders and investors still question the time of the first interest rate hike in nine years. August’s nonfarm payrolls data, released Friday, did very little to clear the muddied waters. Although the headline number was much weaker than expected, showing a gain of 173,000 jobs,the market deemed the data as positive. Revisions for June and July data showed gains of 44,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 5.1%.
While September might be off the table for the first ratehike, the door isn’t completely shut and there is still the possibility of the U.S. central bank moving in October or December.
“The gold market just doesn’t want to price out a rate hike in 2015 and I think, as a result, you will see weaker gold prices,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.
Ted Sloup, senior marketing strategist at iiTrader, agreed that prices could continue to move lower as the “tape looks heavy
“You just don’t want to fight the direction of the market,” he said. “I think the market has room to fall lower, but once the Fed moves, I think we will start to see gold prices rally.”
However, some market analysts expect that gold could push a little bit higher in the near-term as prices have managed to hold near-term support levels.
“If prices can close above $1,117 an ounce today, then I think we could see higher prices,” said Adam Button, currency analyst at Forexlive.com. “The defining characteristic of the marketplace is uncertainty and that should lend itself to more safe-haven demand for gold.”
Courtesy: Kitco News
