SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2015-9-2)

Published: Sep 02, 2015 10:20 (GMT+8)

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On Tuesday, LME lead moved lower to USD 1,711.5/mt as China’s official PMI for Aug. recorded a fresh low since Aug. 2012.

SHANGHAI, Sept. 2 (SMM) – On Tuesday, LME lead moved lower to USD 1,711.5/mt as China’s official PMI for Aug. recorded a fresh low since Aug. 2012 and as growth in Caixin manufacturing PMI for Aug. slowed significantly, last seen on Feb. 2009. However, US dollar index fell and LME lead found support at the 20-day moving average. Hence, LME 3-month lead lurched up to USD 1,725-1,740/mt before closing USD 5.5/mt lower at USD 1,725.5/mt. Trading volumes declined 687 to 4,533 lots and positions decreased 482 to 126,468. LME lead inventories were down 600 mt to 186,800 mt.

SHFE 1510 lead started at RMB 13,370/mt for night trading Tuesday and then ranged between RMB 13,320-13,420/mt, to end RMB 60/mt higher at RMB 13,380/mt.

A total of 50 Chinese brokerage houses will pump RMB 100 billion (USD 15.7 billion) into the government-backed margin finance agency to stabilize China's markets. This may push China’s A-shares up, boding well for base metal prices. LME lead should stay range-bound between USD 1,710-1,740/mt on Sept. 2. SHFE 1510 lead will fluctuate between RMB 13,300-13,450/mt. In China’s spot market, cash-hunger smelters will rush to sell while downstream buyers basically finish building stocks. Trades will thus stay light. Spot lead may move between RMB 13,300-13,450/mt.

LME lead price forecast SHFE lead prices forecast spot lead price forecast

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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