By Paul Ploumis 26 Aug 2015 Last updated at 03:44:34 GMT
• New-home sales rose by 5.4% in July to 507,000, another sign of a steadily firming housing market, missing the forecast of 512K
• US CB consumer confidence jumps to 7 months high in August while service PMI at 55.2, expanded at slower pace in August
• Germany business sentiments at 108.3 in August beating the estimates of 107.5 and previous 108
• China PBOC cuts interest rates, bank reserve requirement ratio; tentative signs of stability in global markets
• China Premier: No foundation for long-term yuan depreciation
• Gold prices fell back below $1150 as China moves calms markets
• USDINR: The rupee recovered from two years low by 50 bps to Rs.66 levels in spot after China rate cut decision improved sentiments of global markets including Indian equities. FII outflow pressurized rupee to fall sharply by more than 2% in last two days, RBI intervened at 66.70 levels yesterday. Dollar index also stabilized around 93 levels on downbeat of US economic data. Today we may see some range trading activity in the level of 65.90-66.50 levels. An overall rupee outlook remains bearish towards 66.50-67.50 levels only if RBI not takes any aggressive stance to curb FX volatility.
• EURINR: The euro is trading up 1.6% at $1.1560 as the greenback suffered from waning expectations of a Fed rate hike in September and unwinding of euro-funding carry trade. Euro rebounded very sharply along with other pairs like yen and GBP against INR yesterday. EURINR expected to rebound to 77-77.50 levels in near term.
Base Metals: Base metals recovered on LME off late as China introduced rate cuts to stimulate growth yesterday but later n looking to US equities and sharp decline of China equities added furthermore weakness as demand from major consumer nations is affecting. Despite the fall in US dollar metals went to slide into oversold zone. LME three-month copper contract was down 2% at $4,953 a metric ton, tumbled to its lowest level since 2009 earlier in trading at $4,855 a ton. It fell below the key $5,000 level for the fifth-straight session. Aluminum, meanwhile, closed down 1.7% at $1,521.50 a ton, after hitting a six-year low during trading at $1,506 a ton. Today there will be some corrections or stable range trading expected on China stimulus but overall weakness still remains until any other intrinsic fundamental trigger comes.
Global Economic Events
|UK||0 3 . 3 0 p m||19|
Energy: Crude oil prices hovering below $40 barrel, at more than six years low in US after China's central bank moved to support the country's stumbling economy, while concerns about a supply glut capped gains.WTI prices closed lower to $39.50 levels in US but dollar weaknesses against rupee supported the sentiments. Meanwhile higher than expected US housing data supported the sentiments for oil. U.S. crude stocks fell by 7.3 million barrels last week to 449.3 million, compared with analysts' expectations for a rise of 1 million barrels as refinery runs rose, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. Energy Information Administration data is due on Wednesday. Though there will be some rebound in the prices on China stimulus or technical pullback after massive fall but overall weaknesses still remains until prices goes above 2800 levels or $41.50 in coming days. Selling on rise is still to be suggested. Gas prices are likely to fluctuate in between the range of Rs.175-181 levels on moderate weather conditions in US and ahead of EIA stocks release. Buying on dips on daily basis can be done for intraday.
LME Warehouse Updates (in ton)
|Aluminum||-8200||3303950||2925||1291425||39.09||CW ratio started improving from the lowest pace|
|Copper||-650||355550||2125||53700||15.1||Canceled warrants jump 36% to highest since July 14|
|Nickel||-1200||453852||9900||163710||36.07||Stocks have fallen very sharply from highest levels in|
|Lead||-1875||190775||250||45625||23.92||Cancelled warrants 26% in the last week|
|Zinc||2800||525550||900||76025||14.47||Stockpiles in Antwerp double to highest since Feb 14|
|27590||26400||The correction can extend towards 26400 over the coming sessions.|
|35600||33900||Sustenance below 34400 will see prices dip towards 33900.|
|2760||2577||Negative view until prices stay below 2760. Sell on rise.|
|342.50||326||Failure to sustain between 342—340 will see prices dip towards 330 again.|
|655.50||618||Sustenance above 645 will see prices rebound towards 655.50.|
|117.50||113||Negative view until prices stay below 116.25 levels.|
|115||107.30||Sideways between 113.25—108 levels|
|185.50||174||Sideways between 185—174. A dip towards 174 is likely.|
|66.70||65.70||Further dip towards 65.70/65.60 likely. But prices can rebound from lower levels.|
Courtesy : Emkay Commotrade
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