SMM Zinc Market Morning Review (2015-8-24)

According to a Korea Investors Service (KIS) report, rising regional protectionism and a surge of Chinese steel exports, driven by a prolonged domestic real estate slump, have been suppressing price recovery in South Korea's domestic steel market. In response, Seoul expanded anti-dumping duties to cover stainless steel alongside coated coils and structural products, providing temporary domestic price relief. However, analysts warn the benefits may prove short-lived as exporters shift to semi-finished slabs or reroute shipments through third countries to bypass measures. KIS notes that competitive advantage in the global steel market has fundamentally shifted from production cost and quality to market access rights, rules of origin, and regional quota allocations, a structural change with significant medium-to-long-term implications for Korean stainless steel exports.

Asian stainless steel prices declined for a third consecutive week as weak demand outweighed supply-side adjustments in Indonesia, with buyers across the region remaining in wait-and-see mode amid uncertain economic conditions and expectations of further price declines. In Indonesia, some mills have reportedly lowered operating rates amid weak demand and water supply issues, though no major producers have officially announced cuts, leaving the scale of reductions unclear and their price impact limited in the face of demand weakness. Near-term prices are likely to remain under pressure unless downstream demand shows a meaningful recovery.

A leading Indian stainless steel producer raised product prices effective September 12, its second revision this month. 316L HR and CR coils were raised by INR 3,000/t, J4 HR and CR by INR 1,500/t, and 204Cu and 202-AU each by INR 2,000/t, with DD and SDM grades also revised. The hike was driven by volatile nickel prices and tight stainless steel scrap availability keeping raw material costs elevated. FeMo 60% stands at approximately INR 4,328,000/t, marginally down INR 31,000/t, while LME three-month nickel is around US$16,410/t. Current benchmark prices stand at INR 222,000/t for 304 HRC and INR 433,000/t for 316 HRC. Firm domestic demand and subdued imports are supporting mill pricing, though buyers may remain price-sensitive following the latest revision, with further upside contingent on alloy price movements and downstream buying response.