SHFE Market Movement (2015-8-21)

Indonesian nickel ore delivered to main Indonesian ports: 1.2% Ni: $26.5/wmt, down $0.5/wmt from the previous assessment. 1.4% Ni: $51.8/wmt, unchanged. 1.5% Ni: $58.5/wmt, unchanged. 1.6% Ni: $63.4/wmt, unchanged. Market update: Indonesia's nickel ore market remains focused on the gradual release of additional 2026 RKAB approvals. Some supplementary quotas have started entering the market, but the government has not announced a final national additional quota. Meanwhile, the revised HPM formula effective September 15 has lowered the benchmark for low-grade limonite, with 1.2% Ni HPM at $24.89/wmt, below current market prices.

According to SMM market research, RKEF Nickel Pig Iron smelters at Indonesia’s IMIP industrial park started reducing production today, with some production lines now operating at around 30%-40% of normal load. Market sources said El Niño-related dry conditions have reduced rainfall and tightened water availability for equipment cooling and protection. If the current operating rate persists for half a month, Nickel Pig Iron output could be reduced by around 50,000-70,000 mt on a physical tonnage basis. Actual operating rates will continue to depend on weather and water supply conditions, and SMM will continue to monitor further developments.

[SMM Nickel Flash] On September 22, the SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment factor stood at 1.79, up 0.01 MoM. The upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.84, flat MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.74, up 0.02 MoM. With the holiday approaching, trading sentiment in the NPI market diverged, as some traders opted to withhold offers and suspend quotations, with wait-and-see sentiment intensifying.