Base Metals Market Watch August 18, 2015 - Emkay Commotrade

Published: Aug 18, 2015 16:05

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Base metals slipped in Asia trade as concerns about Japan's faltering economic growth add to existing economic worries about China.

By Paul Ploumis 18 Aug 2015 Last updated at 03:26:36 GMT

Macro Headlines

• Muted global growth outlook at further risk from Chinese asset price deflation, US interest rate increase and Greece's possible Euro exit: Moody's

• US homebuilders confidence at 9 years high to 61 while Empire State manufacturing index tumbled to lowest since 2009

• Euro zone trade surplus widened to Euro 26.4B versus surplus of Euro 16.0B in June 14

Commodities

• Base Metals: Base metals slipped in Asia trade as concerns about Japan's faltering economic growth add to existing economic worries about China. Japan reported a contraction in second quarter growth as household cuts spending. US lead and zinc scrap prices are buckling under the weight of lower London Metal Exchange prices, with tags inching down amid generally steady demand. Fears of slowing growth in China have been the main culprit behind the bear market in commodities over the last couple years. Metals were also weighed down by a stronger dollar after upbeat US economic data releases renewed expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve by September. Prices of commodities, particularly of base metals, have been bearish for some time on account of lower Chinese demand and the possibility of a US interest rate hike. Metals today likely to trade in range bound manner as nothing major fundamental trigger or data to be found which influence more on metals side. Selling on rise on daily basis can be done in specific counters like Lead, Nickel and aluminum Today Indian currency market remains closed due to Parsi New Year. MCX metals move will be directly varied in respect to the change in intentional markets.

Trend Watch

MCX	Resistance	Support	Comments
Gold	26325	25700	Major correction only below 25700. Until then dips will find buying support.
Silver	36300	35000	Fresh upside only above 36300 until then counter will drift lower.
Crude oil	2855	2700	Failure to break below 2740 will see prices rebound above 2800.
Copper	342.50	330	Sustenance below 335 will see prices dip towards 330 levels.
Nickel	705	670	Sideways between 679.50—700 levels. Breakout only above 706.
Zinc	121.55	117.80	Prices can test support around 118. A daily close below 118 will be negative.
Lead	115	111.55	A dip towards 111.55/111 levels is likely if prices break below 112.50.
Natural Gas	185	174.50	Prices can test support between 176—174.50 zones. Sell on rise.
USDINR	65.70	65	Buy on dips. Prices can head higher towards 65.70.

Courtesy : Emkay Commotrade

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