By Paul Ploumis 11 Aug 2015 Last updated at 02:33:56 GMT
Iron ore prices might have hit the lowest levels of 2015,says Investec bank in its latest research report.
CANTERBURY (Scrap Monster): Iron ore prices might have already hit the lows of 2015, says Investec bank in a recently released research report. The raw material prices have remained highly resilient during recent months, which indicate that there is not much downside left. On the contrary, a string of supportive factors may drive the prices higher from the current levels.
The analyst report states that iron ore prices have already witnessed the worst, considering the extreme volatility in freight costs, energy prices and exchange rates. However, the weak signals out of Chinese market suggest that the mining sector is unlikely to witness a major recovery any time soon. There has been no sign of improvement in the Chinese market so far. This makes the bank continue to remain bearish on the outlook for metals and mining commodity prices.
According to the bank, iron ore 62% Fe are likely to average at $56.30/dry mt CFR China during the current year. However, the average prices are likely to drop further to $52/dmt CFR China in 2016. Also, Iron ore lump 62% Fe is expected to average at $67.90/dmt in 2015. The prices are likely to fall further in 2016 to $61.90/dmt. Coking coal prices are likely to average at $99/mt FOB in 2015. The prices are expected to decline further to $87/mt FOB in 2016. However, the prices are likely to witness sharp recovery to $130/mt FOB by 2020.
The Investec report states that precious metals and non-ferrous metals excluding lead and zinc are likely to bottom out before the second half of next year. However, steel making raw materials may continue to remain under pressure. A bottoming out in iron ore, metallurgical coal, and manganese is expected only by end-2016.