SHANGHAI, Aug. 4 (SMM) –In Shanghai spot tin market, trading was lackluster. Mainstream traded prices were RMB 109,500-111,000/mt on August 3. Goods from Yunnan Tin Group traded at RMB 110,500-111,000/mt.
SMM surveyed market players in domestic tin industry.
Half of them expect tin prices to hold stable this week. On the one hand, Indonesia’s new export rules will put a floor under tin prices. On the other hand, a strong US dollar amid expectations for US interest rate hike will prevent tin prices from rising. LME tin might consolidate at USD 16,000-16,400/mt. SHFE 1509 tin contract should stabilize at RMB 108,000-111,000/mt. Spot tin prices are expected at RMB 109,500-112,000/mt.
Another 30% are bearish. Growing supply in domestic spot market will send spot prices down below RMB 109,000/mt. LME tin lost upward momentum, and is expected to hover around USD 16,000/mt. SHFE 1509 tin contract should test support at RMB 107,000/mt.
The rest 20% are bullish. Indonesia’s new export rules will allow LME tin to challenge resistance at USD 17,000/mt. The SHFE/LME tin price ratio is becoming favorable for exports, which will help alleviate oversupply pressure in domestic market. Spot tin prices are thus expected to rise. However, weak demand in the off-season will curb the upside room. The low-end spot tin prices are expected to climb above RMB 110,000/mt.