[Cu Price] SMM Copper Market Daily Review (2015-8-3)

SHANGHAI, Aug. 4 (SMM) – SHFE 1510 copper contract rose RMB 38,350/mt Monday morning but then fell below RMB 38,000/mt. The price dipped to RMB 37,810/mt near session’s end, to close down RMB 510/mt or 1.33% at RMB 37,870/mt. Trading volumes grew 154,000 lots and positions were up 32,532.

Spot copper premiums fell to RMB 0-80/mt over SHFE 1508 copper early Monday, and traded prices were RMB 38,650-38,780/mt for stand-quality copper and RMB 38,680-38,830/mt for high-quality copper. In the afternoon, spot copper was offered between a discount of RMB 30/mt and a premium of RMB 30/mt.

More imported goods flowed into Chinese market, while buyers still held back despite lower quotes, driving spot premiums down further. Near noon, hydro-copper was shipped out at discounts. Spot premiums on standard-quality and high-quality copper decreased to RMB 0/mt and RMB 50/mt, respectively. Some traders hunted cheaper copper, and downstream buyers purchased as needed.

60% of industry insiders surveyed by SMM expect copper prices to fall this week, with LME copper down to USD 5,150/mt and SHFE copper to RMB 37,800/mt, considering weak Chinese data and risks from China’s stock market. Meanwhile, the falling gold and crude oil prices will also affect copper prices. Technical indicators point downwards and Chinese copper market was under strong selling pressure. As such, copper prices are likely to extend losses.

40% of the surveyed see LME copper to stay at USD 5,170-5,250/mt and SHFE copper still in the RMB 37,800-38,600/mt range. These market players believe that the impact of the US dollar on copper prices is receding recently. In China’s copper market, although spot discounts were reported Monday afternoon, copper smelters seemed to plan to hold prices up, which may help limit any downward room for the prices.