SHANGHAI, Jul. 28 (SMM) – SMM #1 nickel prices were between RMB 83,000-84,200/mt. Premiums of Jinchuan nickel against the most actively traded contracts on the Wuxi electronic trading were RMB 600/mt in the morning. Traders sold actively as nickel prices stabilized in the morning, but demand was soft, with traded prices between RMB 83,100-84,000/mt. Nickel futures prices slumped in the afternoon, with trading muted and traded prices between RMB 83,600-84,400/mt.
SMM surveyed 30 market players to find that no one is bullish toward nickel price, 16 are neutral and 14 are bearish.
The 53% neutral ones think LME nickel price will move between USD 11,150-11,350/mt. US major economic indicators released recently were upbeat, and the Fed announced interest rate increases planned by mistake. Profit at China’s industrials fell 0.3% YoY, and China’s A-share market plunged again, triggering market panic. LME nickel prices have slumped and demand weakened. But on the other hand, nickel ore supply from overseas also decreased, and China will push additional stimulus measures, and nickel prices will technically rally after previous slump. SHFE 1509 nickel contract prices should fluctuate between RMB 81,000-84,000/mt.
The 47% bearish ones see LME nickel price falling to USD 10,800-11,150/mt. The US dollar index remained strong as market expectations of a nearing interest rate hike by the Fed increased. Eurozone recovery is still difficult, and China’s economy will unlikely improve. Profit at China’s industrials entered a negative trajectory, while China’s financial markets entered a downward track, revitalizing market panic. Stainless steel plants continue to cut output, and China’s nickel inventories are high, suggesting oversupply, which will further weigh down nickel prices. LME nickel prices are expected to fall below USD 11,000/mt. SHFE 1509 nickel contract prices should fall to RMB 80,000/mt.