Capital Economics Trims Year-End Gold Forecast, But Remains Positive

According to foreign media reports, Chile's government will allow state-owned copper producer Codelco to reinvest 100% of its 2025 profit, totaling approximately $2.42 billion, marking the first time the company has been permitted to retain all of its annual earnings since its establishment in 1976. The decision provides additional financial capacity for Codelco as it works to stabilise copper production while undertaking several capital-intensive projects aimed at extending the operating lives of its ageing mines. The company has accumulated more than $20 billion in debt, increasing pressure on its balance sheet as investment requirements remain elevated. In recent years, Codelco had typically been permitted to retain around 30% of its profits, with the majority transferred to the Chilean government. The financial support comes amid persistent weakness in Codelco's copper production. Following an internal review, the company revised its 2025 output to 1.308 million tonnes, almost 27,000 tonnes below its previous estimate. The revised figure represents Codelco's lowest annual production in nearly three decades and is approximately 19% below its 2021 output. Codelco's new leadership has indicated that improving profitability and project execution will take priority over pursuing aggressive production targets. The retained earnings are expected to provide greater flexibility to finance the company's investment programme internally, potentially reducing its reliance on additional borrowing while it works to improve operational performance. From a copper-market perspective, Codelco's ability to stabilise and eventually recover production remains significant given that the company accounts for around 5% of global copper supply. Allowing the miner to retain its entire 2025 profit strengthens its capacity to fund mine-renewal projects, but the impact on future copper supply will ultimately depend on whether the additional capital translates into improved project execution and a sustained recovery in production.

According to foreign media reports, PT Freeport Indonesia is continuing development of the Kucing Liar underground copper-gold mine within the Grasberg minerals district in Central Papua, with initial mining targeted for 2029 and production expected to ramp up thereafter. The project is being developed as a long-term source of replacement supply as production from the Deep Mill Level Zone declines. Development of the underground deposit has been underway for several years and requires substantial investment in mine access and supporting underground infrastructure. Recent reports indicate that approximately $1.4 billion has already been invested, with a further roughly $4 billion expected through 2033 as development progresses. At full operating rates, Kucing Liar is expected to process approximately 130,000 tonnes of ore per day and produce around 750 million lb of copper annually, equivalent to roughly 340,000 tonnes, alongside approximately 735,000 oz of gold. Freeport-McMoRan currently estimates that the deposit could contribute more than 8 billion lb of copper through 2041. From a copper-market perspective, Kucing Liar represents a significant source of prospective long-term mine supply from the Grasberg district. Its development is particularly important because it is intended to help offset declining output from mature underground areas and sustain Freeport Indonesia's large-scale copper production over the longer term.