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CFTC Data Shows Fleeting Love For Gold, Silver – Analysts

iconJun 30, 2015 18:02
Source:SMM
The latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed a short-term shift in market sentiment, which drove some short sellers out of the marketplace, said analysts.

By Paul Ploumis 30 Jun 2015 Last updated at 06:40:58 GMT

(Kitco News) - The latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed a short-term shift in market sentiment, which drove some short sellers out of the marketplace, said analysts.

According to the disaggregated Commitment of Traders Report (COTR), for the week ending June 23, money-managed speculative gross long positions of Comex gold futures rose by only 316 contracts to 124,843. At the same time, short-sellers exited their positions by 4,602 contracts to 84,927. Gold's net length now stands at 39,916 contracts.

During the survey period, Comex August gold futures were fairly volatile, with prices rallying from a low of $1,173.9 an ounce to a high of $1,205.7 an ounce, representing a gain of 2.7%; however, those gains quickly evaporated as prices actually ended the five-session period with a 0.4% loss.

Analysts at Barclays noted in a report Monday that investors’“favorable stance” in gold helped boost gold’s gross long positons to their highest point since February; at the same-time, they noted that gross shorts hit a three-week low.

However, the UK bank remains bearish on gold prices as the positive market sentiment was short-lived and it is only a matter of time before prices are dragged lower as the Federal Reserve prepares to pull the trigger on a new rate hike cycle.

“Even if the Fed seems to be hesitant about committing to start normalizing monetary policy in the near future, we think recent data supports our view that the likelihood of a September rate hike is higher than market pricing (less than half of a hike), which should support the USD during the second half of 2015…” they said in the report.

Phillip Streible, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, agreed that a stronger U.S. dollar will lead to more long-liquidations in the gold market in the near-term.

“The most dominating influence on gold and silver might be the action in the dollar, which we think will find ongoing support because of the proximity to a technical Greek default,” he said in a report published Monday.

However, some analysts see potential for more short covering in the gold market as speculation rises that Greece will default on its debt obligations Tuesday, creating financial market turmoil.

“Considering the raised uncertainty, a higher gold price has the potential of triggering some aggressive short covering, which ultimately could see it back above $1200,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in a note published Sunday evening.

While the gold market managed to grow its net-length, speculative silver positions turned net short for the first time since November, as short sellers once again overwhelmed the marketplace.

The CFTC disaggregated COTR showed money-managed speculative gross long positions of Comex silver futures rose by 615 contracts to 46,135. At the same time, short contracts rose by 8,525 to 53,304. The silver market is now net short 7,169 contracts.

During the survey period, the silver market saw an even briefer rally as prices ended the survey week solidly lower, down 1.4%.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that because of silver’s volatility, it is not surprising that speculators are now increasing their short bets on silver.

“If you are worried about gold prices, you are double worried about silver,” he said.

Melek added that with a Federal Reserve rate hike still looming, silver could attract some more short sellers.

“I could see silver trend a little lower as we get closer to the Fed’s first rate hike,” he said.

Courtesy: Kitco News

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