SMM Zinc Market Morning Review (2015-6-30)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 30 (SMM) – LME zinc prices opened at USD 2,025.5/mt Monday, then fell to a new low of USD 2,006.5/mt since March 20, 2015, but declines were arrested some by the weakening US dollar index, and closed at USD 2,022/mt, down USD 5/mt or 0.25%. Trading volumes increased 338 to 9,422 lots, and total positions grew 2,221 to 295,061. LME zinc inventories fell 25 to 464,925 mt.

SHFE 1509 zinc contract prices opened at RMB 15,410/mt, then fluctuated between RMB 15,350-15,420/mt, and closed at RMB 15,410/mt, down RMB 95/mt or 0.61%. Trading volumes increased 6,556 to 40,396 lots, and total positions declined 1,060 to 123,376.

Despite the deposit reserve ratio and interest rate cut by the PBOC, CSI 500, IH 50 and IF 300 indexes plummeted as a large number of financiers closed positions, though clawed back some losses at the end of trading. This depressed market confidence. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) expects to ease market panic. The Ministry of Human Resources & Social Security and the Ministry of Finance solicited advises for the Investment & Management Methods for Basic Old-Age Pension.

The European Central Bank rejected Greece’s application for EUR 6 billion emergency liquidity assistance, but agreed to leave the ceiling for ELA at EUR 89 billion until the referendum to be implemented July 5. This allowed global stocks markets to plunge.

US pending home sales were at 0.9%, falling short of the 1.2% expected. But analysis believes US Pending Home Sales Index, which tracks contract signings hit a new high since April 2006, and rose for the fifth straight month, meaning US property market is recovering. However, an increasing likelihood of Grexit may postpone interest rate hike by the Fed. When combined with appreciation of CHF against the US dollar, the US dollar index fell to 95.

With the exception of copper, all base metals prices dropped. SHFE nickel prices fell by daily limit at one point, and rebar prices also hit a record low. London gold prices rose 0.38%.

LME zinc prices should move between USD 2,000-2,030/mt today, and SHFE 1509 zinc contract prices will fluctuate between RMB 15,380-15,480/mt, with spot premiums of RMB 0-30/mt.