SHANGHAI, Jun. 30 (SMM) –On Monday, China’s interest rate and RRR cuts this past weekend pushed SHFE 1509 aluminum contract up to RMB 12,750/mt. But prices fell back in the afternoon before ending at RMB 12,735/mt. Trading volumes totaled 28,260 lots, and positions were up 8,600 lots to 119,202 lots. 

 

Spot aluminum largely traded between RMB 12,610-12,620/mt in Shanghai on Monday, discounts of RMB 110-120/mt over SHFE 1507 aluminum contract, versus RMB 12,590-12,610/mt in Wuxi, and RMB 12,620-12,630/mt in Hangzhou. Processors bought as needed in small amounts due to month-end cash crunch. In the afternoon, some cut offers slightly, but trading did not improve. 

 

SMM surveyed 27 large aluminum smelters and traders in China. 

 

56% of them expect prices to stabilize this week: 1. LME aluminum has found support at USD 1,671/mt and should range USD 1,670-1,720/mt. 2. China’s interest rate and RRR cuts should help SHFE 1509 aluminum contract hold stable at RMB 12,650-12,800/mt. 3. Consumption in domestic spot market might pick up with the passing of month-end cash crunch. This will help keep spot prices stable at RMB 12,580-12,620/mt. 

 

The rest 44% are bearish: 1. The US dollar will strengthen further on positive US economic data, which will push LME aluminum down below USD 1,670/mt. 2. Negative technical side and growing bearishness will cause SHFE 1509 aluminum contract to fall to RMB 12,650/mt. Eagerness to sell and the onset of off-season in July will weigh aluminum prices in domestic spot market down below RMB 12,580/mt.