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SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2015-6-9)
Jun 9,2015 10:01CST
price review forecast
LME lead started Asian trading session at USD 1,914/mt and fluctuated between USD 1,905-1,920/mt.

SHANGHAI, Jun. 9 (SMM) – LME lead started Asian trading session at USD 1,914/mt and fluctuated between USD 1,905-1,920/mt when China’s trade balance for May was released with exports slipping 2.5% YoY, better than expected and previous one, but imports felling 17.6% YoY, short of expected and April’s. LME lead soared to USD 1,937/mt due to falling dollar during European and US trading hours and finished up USD 4.5/mt at USD 1,912/mt. Trading volumes dropped 1,689 to 3,228 lots whereas positions were down 4,188 to 143,305. LME inventories slipped 150 to 155,775 mt.

SHFE 1508 lead opened at RMB 13,135/mt Monday evening session and advanced to RMB 13,260/mt, to close the session up RMB 40/mt at RMB 13,150/mt with growing longs after meeting resistance at the 10 and 20-day moving averages.

Base metals rebounded thanks to the 1% of drop in dollar yesterday. Greece debt crisis may be eased. US government expressed that higher US dollar index impacted its economy growth, favoring euro and base metals. US labor market conditions index in May grew to 1.3, much better than previous -1.9, raising hopes for the Fed interest rate hike. US stocks were thus weighed to finish down.

Crude oil price dropped 1.7% to USD 58.14/bbl, resulting from reducing China’s oil import and OPEC failing to announce oil output cutting. New York gold prices ended up 0.5% to USD 1,173.6/Oz. LME base metals all rebounded slightly with nickel jumping most.

Tuesday will see China’s CPI and PPI for May. Most people expect CPI to rise 1.3-1.4% YoY, indicating low inflation pressures. Steel and iron prices dropped most with energy, building materials and textile all slipping. PPI for May is expected to fall 4.3-4.6% YoY, posting weak demand both at home and board. Whether China’s pro-growth measures will improve investors’ confidence will focus markets attention.

Markets expect LME lead to move between USD 1,900-1,940/mt today. SHFE 1508 lead should hover between RMB 13,100-13,250/mt and spot lead RMB 13,500-13,650/mt.

LME lead price
SHFE lead prices

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