Commodity charts roundup: Gold and copper running into trouble?

Published: May 21, 2015 11:25

Save

Gold struggles to escape the 1225-31 zone; A break of resistance would turn bias bullish; Copper just failed at big-time resistance

Tuesday at 11:46 GMT

Gold struggles to escape the 1225-31 zone
A break of resistance would turn bias bullish
Copper just failed at big-time resistance

Gold (June ’15 Futures), as per my piece last week cannot get through the 1225-31 zone and continues to struggle to convince at these levels. In Asian trade yesterday we got a jump up to 1232 but that was as good as it got and once our friends over the pond woke up we saw sellers reacting. The net result was a Shooting Star, as highlighted in Steve O’Hare’s Saxo TV slot this morning.

This is a powerful reversal pattern and has arrived/been posted at key resistance.
The key short-term supports I’m now watching are 1210.3 and 1203.5. If these two broke we’d be putting some distance on 1225-31 and the bears would most likely continue to take us lower.
Remember if we can get through 1225-32 the skew immediately flips to bullish and the upside target becomes 1292.

Copper (Jul ’15 Futures) is getting interesting and has just failed at a massive resistance (former support, and Fibonacci) level at 295.60. This morning saw weakness to give a small “double top” sell signal when 288.80 broke, but we’ve already done a chunk of this move. Supports to watch/target on further weakness are 283 then 275.

Brent Crude (July ’15 Futures) has set a weaker tone in the last few days, and posted a candle with a long-ish upper shadow yesterday, then broke a short-term uptrend line. Now we have a big question to ask: “Can we hold 65.00?” If the answer is no we get a sell signal targeting 63.07. However if we hold above 65.00 I think we’ll head higher once more. So that’s a key level.

The US Natural Gas (June ’15) bulls have been trying hard lately and this is looking good to head to 3.302 now to fill a gap left back in December. I would like to see 3.000-12 holding as support now to encourage this idea. Be aware, though, that July is close to taking over as front month. In this one 3.050-060 is the key support that it would be good to see holding to encourage a move to the gap between 3.292 and 3.341.

Corn (July ’15) has been behaving well lately with respect to the Fibonacci lines. We have a key support level at 355. If this keeps holding look for a move through 372 and 378 to target 396.

– Edited by Clare MacCarthy

GOLD COPPER

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

1 hour ago

Fed Governor Milan Pushes for Over 100 Basis Points Cut, Contradicts Barkin on Caution

Federal Reserve Governor Milan pointed out that it is necessary for the US Fed to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. At the same time, he is very much looking forward to the performance of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman. However, Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that monetary policy must remain cautious until inflation fully pulls back to the target level, thereby ensuring the stability of the labour market.

1 hour ago

Democratic Senators Demand Delay in Fed Nomination Amid Criminal Investigation

All 11 Democratic members of the US Senate Banking Committee jointly sent a letter to the committee's chairman, Tim Scott, requesting that all nomination processes for the prospective Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, be postponed until the criminal investigation into current Fed Chairman Powell and other board members is concluded. However, Scott stated that Warsh's confirmation was a done deal.

1 hour ago

Fed to Keep Large Banks' Capital Levels Unchanged, Postpones Stress Test Reforms Until 2027

The US Fed has announced that it will maintain the capital levels of large banks unchanged during the upcoming stress test cycle (corresponding to the 2026 cycle). At the same time, the US Fed is planning multidimensional reforms to this annual test, aiming to enhance its transparency. The US Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision, Bowman, revealed that adjustments to the stress capital buffer requirements for large banks will be postponed until 2027. This move is intended to provide the US Fed with sufficient time to evaluate potential flaws that may be exposed in its testing models when assessing banks' financial conditions under simulated economic downturn scenarios.

1 hour ago