SMM Aluminum Weekly Price Review and Forecast (May 11-15, 2015)

SHANGHAI, May 11 (SMM) – SHFE 1507 aluminum contract met resistance at RMB 13,450/mt in the first half of last week before following LME aluminum up to RMB 13,620/mt. However, the most active contract surrendered gains later in the week. In China’s spot market, suppliers were eager to sell at highs. Some traders bought spot aluminum while selling SHFE aluminum, preventing spot discounts from expanding significantly. Downstream producers sourced only to need.  

 

SHFE 1507 aluminum contract is likely to rise to RMB 13,350-13,500/mt this week. In China’s spot market, spot discounts will not widen further, since holders of hedged goods will be reluctant to sell at large spot discounts and since the delivery date of SHFE 1505 aluminum contract is nearing. That said, sluggish downstream consumption will prevent spot discounts from narrowing. Spot aluminum should trade at discounts of RMB 170-220/mt over SHFE front-month contract.