SMM Tin Weekly Price Review and Forecast (May 11-15, 2015)

The US unadjusted CPI monthly rate for August came in at 0.4%, the highest since June this year, compared with 0.1% previously. The seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate came in at 0.3%, the highest since May this year, exceeding market expectations and the previous reading of 0.2%.

India's stainless steel scrap imports declined 6% YoY to 0.67 million tonnes in H1 2026 from 0.71 million tonnes a year earlier, driven by elevated landed costs and a sustained domestic scrap price advantage. Imported 304-grade scrap averaged US$1,410–1,450/t — approximately US$100–130/t above year-ago levels, with a net landed cost of approximately INR 148,000–149,000/t versus domestic 304 scrap at around INR 144,000/t, consistently favouring domestic procurement. By grade, 304 imports held steady at 0.26 mnt (+1% YoY), 430 rose to 0.068 mnt (+14%), and 316 declined to 0.06 mnt (-3%). By origin, the US remained the top supplier at 0.094 mnt (+4% YoY), followed by South Korea at 0.051 mnt (-6%) and Turkey at 0.023 mnt (-16%). Ferro nickel imports collapsed 62% YoY to 0.02 mnt, prompting mills to substitute nickel-bearing stainless scrap as an alternative nickel unit source and reinforcing domestic scrap preference. Looking ahead, JSL's capacity expansion will drive structural import demand through FY27–29, but near-term import recovery hinges on international price corrections and INR movement.

India has negotiated country-specific tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) of approximately 1.64 million tonnes of steel products under its free trade agreement with the European Union, providing Indian exporters with predictable market access as the EU tightens its steel import regime. The total allocation comprises 946,616 tonnes under the MFN component and 694,853 tonnes under the FTA component, covering a broad range of products including hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets, metallic and organic coated steel, tin mill products, quarto plates, stainless steel products, bars, wire rods, and pipes and tubes. The negotiated quotas are significant given that the EU's new Steel Regulation, effective July 1, 2026, imposes a 50% out-of-quota duty on all steel imports, including from FTA partners. The agreement includes a mechanism protecting India from being disadvantaged should the EU extend more favourable quota access to other FTA partners, with quotas subject to review one year after entry into force and every five years thereafter.