SHFE 1506 Lead up RMB 65/mt (Apr. 30, 2015)

Shanghai base metals mostly trended lower on Tuesday morning after US dollar rallied significantly. Meanwhile, their counterparts on LME performed similarly.

Shanghai nonferrous metals mostly closed in the positive territory as the market was cheered up by the macro front, as China released its December official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings, which topped market expectation.

Lead prices have fluctuated greatly since Q3. After continuously experiencing sharp decrease in August and September, lead prices have just ushered in a turnaround in October, but trended lower in November. As of November 30, the most-traded SHFE lead contract closed at 15,340 yuan/mt, down 2.17%.

At the 2021 (11th) China Secondary Lead Battery Industry Summit and China Lead-acid Battery Scrap Recycling Industry Summit held by SMM, Lin Haibo, a professor at the School of Chemistry of Jilin University, gave an explanation on the research on externally applied lead-carbon batteries, and gave his forecast on its development prospects.

The power rationing in Yunnan, Henan, and Hunan since July-August and the power rationing in Jiangxi and Guangxi in September are undoubtedly the current hot spots. According to a recent SMM survey, the power rationing in Jiangsu, Guangdong and other regions in China has continued. Since late September, the social inventory of lead ingots has declined due to the combined effects of losses, power rationing and environmental protection.

The most traded SHFE lead contract kept rising after hitting the lowest level since June 2020 at 14,055 yuan/mt on September 23. SHFE lead reached a nearly three-month high at 16,330 yuan/mt in the overnight trading on September 20. In the intraday trading on September 21, the most traded SHFE lead contract closed 1.5% higher at 15,945 yuan/mt, up 1,890 yuan/mt or 13.4% from September 23.

Shanghai base metals basically trended higher on Tuesday morning amid extended power rationing. Meanwhile, their counterparts on LME mostly fell.

LME lead will fluctuate at highs between USD 2,460-2,490/mt today.

Motive battery supply is tight in China's market and will ease in mid and late June.

Average operating rate at surveyed 51 Chinese lead-acid battery producers was 62.12% in March, up 3.35 percentage points MoM but down 4.41 percentage points YoY.