SHANGHAI, Apr. 28 (SMM) – SHFE 1507 aluminum contract, the most active one, rebounded after falling to RMB 13,000/mt. July aluminum on the SHFE jumped to RMB 13,280/mt as export tax adjustment cheered market up, but failed to break through the 20-day moving average. In China’s spot market, buyers became even more cautious after spot prices fell below RMB 13,000/mt, causing spot discounts to widen slightly. SHFE aluminum rose significantly in the second half of the week, but spot prices rose slower. Downstream demand picked up before the weekend.
SHFE 1507 aluminum contract has found solid support at RMB 13,000/mt, but any potential upside room will be limited since the positive impact of favorable export policy on market sentiment will fade and LME aluminum is weak. The most active SHFE aluminum contract is expected to move between RMB 13,150-13,300/mt. In China’s spot market, downstream producers will buy only to need. Mounting inventories will cause spot aluminum to trade at discounts of RMB 100-140/mt over SHFE front-month contract.