SMM Tin Market Daily Review (2015-4-20)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 21 (SMM) – In Shanghai spot tin market, mainstream traded prices rebounded to RMB 110,800-112,000/mt on Monday. LME and SHFE tin stopped falling, and domestic supply fell, allowing prices to rally. Downstream producers and traders entered the market now that prices have stopped falling.  

 

SMM surveyed market players in domestic tin industry. 

 

Half of them expect tin prices to hold stable this week: mixed macro front will keep LME tin in check. Tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are holding back goods at lows prices against raw material shortages. This will allow spot prices to stabilize between 110,500-114,000/mt. SHFE 1507 tin contract should move between RMB 111,000-113,000/mt. 

 

Another 30% are bearish: LME tin will test support at USD 13,600/mt as bears prevail. SHFE 1507 tin contract will be vulnerable at RMB 110,000/mt. Poor demand will send prices in domestic spot market down to RMB 108,000/mt.

 

The remaining 20% are bullish: technically, LME tin is poised to challenge USD 15,500/mt. SHFE 1507 tin contract is expected to climb to RMB 112,000-115,000/mt. Small tin mines in Myanmar are cutting output against falling prices, and more mines are likely to follow suit should prices continue falling. This will affect raw material supply for tin smelters in China. In this context, market players are expecting that prices in domestic spot market will rise to RMB 111,000-115,000/mt.