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SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2015-4-1)
Apr 1,2015 10:38CST
price review forecast
With tumbling crude oil prices and rising US dollar index, LME base metals prices dropped across the board.

SHANGHAI, Apr. 1 (SMM) – With tumbling crude oil prices and rising US dollar index, LME base metals prices dropped across the board. LME lead prices dipped to USD 1,792/mt, though returned to the 60-day moving average at the end of trading, and closed the day down USD 4/mt or 0.22%.

Global stocks markets plummeted after news from China’s property market was absorbed. Euro zone March CPI was -0.1%, in compliance with market expectations. The number of Germany’s unemployment in March decreased 15,000, with seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hitting a new low of 6.4%. Conference Board’s March CCI was 101.3, topping the 96.4 expected. Home prices in the US’s 20 large cities rose 0.9% MoM, better than the 0.6% expected.

It was reported representatives that attend the talks on Iran’s nuclear issue will reach a draft of agreement within a few hours or a day, and the final agreement will be decided before June 30, causing crude oil prices to plunge. Ongoing Greek crisis pulled down the euro.
As of March 31, 46 countries will join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), with 30 becoming founding countries. The State Council announced the Deposit Insurance Act will take effect May 1, 2015, and the ceiling of insurance is RMB 500,000.

European and US stocks mostly rose. The US dollar index rose 0.58% as COMEX crude oil prices dropped 2.22%. LME base metals prices fell across the board.

China’s official PMI in March and ADP’s employment data for the US will be announced today. Promising US indicators will boost the US dollar index and weigh on LME lead prices. LME lead prices are expected to move between USD 1,800-1,825/mt today, and SHFE 1506 lead contract prices will hover between RMB 12,300-12,380/mt, with spot lead prices in Shanghai between RMB 12,300-12,450/mt.


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