SMM EMM Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Mar. 30-Apr. 3, 2015)

SHANGHAI, Mar. 30 (SMM) – EMM in China traded lower to RMB 11,500-11,600/mt in the week ending March 27. Growing EMM supply allowed buyers to push even harder for lower prices. Large producers held offers at RMB 11,600/mt, while SMEs held offers at the lower end of the price range. Some cash-hungry producers lowered quotes to promote sales, dragging down overall prices. South Korea’s Pohang cut bid prices to as low as USD 1,859-1,879/mt. 

 

Despite falling operating rates at EMM producers, mounting inventories and weak demand should send EMM prices down further this week.

 

Outlook for March: China’s EMM production is estimated at 93,300 mt in March, according to SMM’s survey. The reopening of some producers after facility maintenance might push the country’s EMM production up to 95,000 mt in April. Demand from large stainless steel mills will change little in April, but demand from SMEs could weaken further due to depressed market conditions. China’s EMM exports are expected to fall below 30,000 mt in March, given tepid recovery in overseas market. EMM prices in China are expected to fall to RMB 11,300-11,500/mt in April, due to growing supply and weak demand. Export FOB price is expected at USD 1,900/mt.