SMM Aluminum Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Mar. 16-20, 2015)

SHANGHAI, Mar. 16 (SMM) – SHFE 1505 aluminum contract dropped to RMB 12,865/mt, but rallied to RMB 13,290/mt later in the week. Many investors exited the market, leaving the most active contract hovering around RMB 13,000/mt. In China’s spot market, inventories kept growing, but sellers did not panic. Processors sought cheap goods. Spot prices gained less than SHFE aluminum, causing spot discounts to expand.

 

Improving market sentiment will push SHFE 1505 aluminum contract up further, but poor market fundamentals will temper gains, with prices expected between RMB 13,000-13,200/mt this week. In China’s spot market, higher prices will cool buying. Spot aluminum should trade at discounts of RMB 170-220/mt over SHFE front-month contract.