Thursday March 5, 2015, 2:45pm PDT
By Teresa Matich+ - Exclusive to Coal Investing News

At the 2015 PDAC International Convention, Trade Show & Investors Exchange, Resource Investing News spoke with Jonny Sultoon, research director for global coal markets at Wood Mackenzie, about some of the key factors driving the coal market.

Sultoon spoke about a range of topics, from demand from China and India to take-or-pay contracts in Australia and reports that Glencore (LSE:GLEN) will cut production in the face of oversupply. Overall, he stated that Wood Mackenzie sees coal demand falling in China this year on the back of environmental protection movements and protectionism regarding China’s domestic coal industry. However, he also suggested that there could be more growth for the import market in India.

Interestingly, he stated that innovations in carbon capture and sequestration will have to come from China — aside from Saskpower’s Boundary Dam project, he doesn’t see a lot of investment in the space in the western hemisphere. “It’s not something that’s commercially viable in the western hemisphere at this moment in time,” he said.

Sultoon still believes there’s a bit of work to be done in curtailing oversupply in both the thermal and metallurgical coal spaces. For 2015, he sees possible price floors being reached, with met coal dropping to $114 per tonne and coming back to $116 per tonne by the end of the year. On the thermal coal side, he sees spot Newcastle thermal coal prices averaging at $62 to $64 per tonne this year.