Shanghai, Jan. 12 (SMM) – Aluminum price have been falling these recent days? What trend will aluminum price track in 2015? 

"Aluminum prices are forecast to fluctuate between 12,500-14,000 yuan per tonne in 2015," said Guosen Futures's research report, adding big supply pressures will stand out in Q1 2015 due to weaker consumption from 2014 Q4's. 

Supply concerns on bauxite, growth of new capacities and power price reform will be the three major factors dominating Chinese aluminum market in 2015, Guotai Junan Futures’s research report pointed out. 

“Aluminum prices are expected to fall first, and then rally before falling again in 2015, with little possibility that aluminum prices will rise above 15,000 yuan per tonne,” the report noted. 

J.P. Morgan, however, said in one report that supply disruption of bauxite will support higher aluminum prices in 2015, but added capacity expansion in China will put a cab on price gains.