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WRAPUP 1-China's Oil, Iron Ore Imports Rise in April

iconMay 9, 2013 10:12
Source:SMM
China's crude oil and iron ore imports rose for a second consecutive month in April as cheaper overseas prices encouraged stockpiling.
* Cheaper commodity prices encourage stockpiling-analysts
 
* Crude oil imports up 3.7 percent on a year ago
 
* Iron ore imports rise 4 percent from March
 
* Copper imports fall but seen rising from May
 
SHANGHAI/BEIJING, May 8 - China's crude oil and iron ore imports rose for a second consecutive month in April as cheaper overseas prices encouraged stockpiling, and improving seasonal demand gave a slight boost to steel makers' appetite for ore.
 
Still, the data was marred by a 7.4 percent fall in copper imports in April from a month earlier and analysts said the overall numbers show that China, the world's second-largest economy, is undergoing a fragile recovery after first-quarter growth stumbled.
 
A tepid global economic recovery and efforts by Beijing to cap economic growth mean commodities more dependent on the infrastructure sector -- where spending has already been approved -- are set to be more resilient than those dependent on manufacturing and export industries, analysts said.
 
Daily crude oil imports by China, the world's largest crude buyer after the United States, rose 3.7 percent in April from year ago and gained 3.5 percent from a month earlier, customs data showed on Wednesday, as refiners took advantage of a fall in global prices to replenish stocks.
 
"China has shown that they have been savvy, they have been market-oriented in building inventories. So if we see oil prices weakening further, China may step in to import more to build up its stockpile. Brent under $100 may be a buying opportunity," said Tony Nunan, risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp.
 
The price of Brent crude fell to around $102 a barrel at end-April from around $110 a barrel at the beginning of the month, dipping below $97 along the way.
 
"A lot will also depend on how China's economy grows. If the government wants to control GDP growth at under 8 percent, we will see China's oil demand slowing as well. It will continue to grow but at a slower pace," Nunan said.
 
China's manufacturing and construction activity tends to pick up in the second quarter as industry gears up after winter and the Lunar New Year holiday.
 
The nation is the world's top buyer of copper, soy and iron ore, but recent disappointing manufacturing data has raised concerns that its tepid import appetite could worsen a global supply surplus and weaken prices.
 
Crude oil imports for the four months from January to April fell 0.9 percent from a year ago, down from nearly 7 percent growth last year. Copper and aluminium imports tumbled 27 percent and 43 percent respectively, compared with solid growth in 2012.
 
Broader data showed April's overall exports rose a better-than-expected 14.7 percent, while imports grew 16.8 percent, but there are lingering doubts that financial manoeuvring by exporters and speculative capital inflows have masked weakness in real demand.
 
BULK COMMODITIES, SOYBEANS
 
China's copper arrivals in April slumped to a 22-month low of 295,799 tonnes, hit by port strikes in Chile and delays to shipments after the closure of India's top smelter.
 
The fall in April shipments marks a reversal of a 7.2 percent gain in March and reflects the fact that plentiful stocks in China have covered demand.
 
Although importers and end-users had stepped up refined copper purchases in April due to improved price differentials between the LME and Shanghai <0#SCF:>, the buying was mostly of metal already stored in Shanghai's bonded warehouses.
 
"Copper imports fell in April because domestic production of refined copper remained strong, and end-users have used stocks already in China, reducing the need for imports," said Yang Xiaoguang, analyst at Jinrui Futures.
 
Still, Yang said many fabricators have resumed normal production in the past few weeks and the government has brought forward investments in the power sector, which will help boost imports starting from May.
 
On iron ore, China imported 67.15 million tonnes of the raw material in April, the third highest amount on record and up 4 percent from March, thanks to robust steel production.
 
Average daily crude steel output hit a record high of 2.129 million tonnes over April 21-30, up 0.6 percent from the preceding ten days, data from the China Iron & Steel Association showed.
 
But a four percent drop in steel prices last month means some mills are now in the red and could start to cut production, in turn hitting iron ore demand and prices in the coming months, said Xu Zhongbu, chief of Beijing Metal Consulting.
 
China's soy imports fell 18.4 percent in April from a year earlier to 3.98 million tonnes, but the trade was hit by serious port congestion in Brazil.
 
Soy arrivals are expected to jump to 5.65 million tonnes in May, the highest this year, as Brazil resumes shipments, according to estimates by official think-tank the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre.
China iron ore
iron ore imports
China oil imports

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