SMM Lead Price Forecast (Feb. 4-8)

SHANGHAI, Feb. 4 (SMM) – Given recent rallies in LME lead prices and a 5.5% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index last week, the 1303 SHFE lead contract prices rose from RMB 15,250/mt to RMB 15,400/mt and stood above all moving averages. Last Thursday, 1304 SHFE lead contracts became the most active contract. With investors booking profits before the Chinese New Year holiday, the 1304 SHFE lead contract price may move between RMB 15,400-15,600/mt this week.

Spot lead prices in China early last week were between RMB 14,700-14,850/mt, and with spot discounts over the most active SHFE lead contract price at RMB 400/mt. Later, spot prices rose along with SHFE lead prices to RMB 14,800-14,950/mt, but trading was light as most downstream buyers were already closed for the holiday, which caused spot discounts to grow to RMB 440/mt. Cargo holders were bullish and held back goods since they had no financial or sales pressure, leaving supply of branded lead limited. During the last trading week before the holiday, China’s spot lead market should remain quiet with most suppliers and buyers halting operations for the holiday. Transactions will be sparse with traded prices expected below RMB 15,000/mt.