SMM Aluminum Market Morning Review (2012-12-6)

SHANGHAI, Dec. 6 (SMM) – The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose slightly in November, but the growth of ADP’s employment data fell short of forecasts, weakening expectations for non-farm payrolls on Friday. The US dollar index staged a rally due to market risk aversion, curtailing gains of commodities. LME aluminum continued to test support at the 5-day moving average, hovering near USD 2,100/mt. Trading volumes increased, but positions decreased 3,596 lots. Finally, LME aluminum advanced USD 15/mt or 0.72% at USD 2,105/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories decreased 1,225 mt to 5,189,950 mt.

Markets are eyeing the upcoming economic data in the US and Europe for direction. LME aluminum should hover around USD 2,100/mt and fluctuate in the band of USD 2,080-2,120/mt on Thursday. The SHFE 1301 aluminum contract is expected to open higher at RMB 15,310/mt, with prices at RMB 15,260-15,340/mt. Cargo holders should split over their willingness to move goods. Spot discounts are expected at RMB 50-90/mt since consumption will hardly improve. Overall trading will be moderate.