LME Copper Down Ahead of China GDP Figures-Shanghai Metals Market

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LME Copper Down Ahead of China GDP Figures

Industry News 09:57:23AM Jul 13, 2012 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, July 13 (Reuters) - London copper edged down on Friday as investors closed positions on caution ahead of data on China's second-quarter growth that markets fear could be its slowest in more than three years. The data is due around 0200 GMT.

Although prices may fall should the figures be much lower than expected, some positive data and news out of major economies are expected to put a floor under prices. These include China's better than expected new loan amounts in June, a smaller than expected rise in U.S. jobs benefits claims and the increased possibility of the euro zone rolling out more stimulus policies.
                                               
Fundamentals
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange inched down 0.3 percent to $7,535 per tonne by 0101 GMT, after rising 0.2 percent on Thursday, on track to end the week up 0.2 percent.

The most-active October copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.1 percent to 55,180 yuan ($8,700) per tonne, catching up with London's previous gains, after ending the prior session flat. It is on track to end the week down 0.8 percent.

China will release on Friday GDP figures that are expected to be the weakest since the three months to March 2009 during the global financial crisis, but may raise chances of Beijing further easing its monetary policy.

Chinese banks extended new loans of 919.8 billion yuan ($144.43 billion) in June, hitting a three-month high and raising hopes that policy easing may be gaining some traction to help head off a sharper slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

The number of Americans signing up for new jobless benefits fell to a four-year low last week but an unusual pattern of summer factory shutdowns suggested layoffs might pick up again in coming weeks.

European Central Bank policymakers held out the possibility on Thursday of taking further measures to boost the zone's flagging economy after a cut in their deposit rate to zero showed no sign of jolting banks into lending more money.

Euro zone factories unexpectedly stepped up production in May, but output fell in France and the Netherlands in a further sign that the bloc's sovereign debt crisis is also hurting its stronger economies. 
   
Market News
Asian shares marked time with small gains on Friday ahead of China's second-quarter gross domestic product figures, which could depress risk appetite, while a Moody's downgrade of Italy's credit rating threatened to rekindle worries over Europe's debt crisis.

The euro came close to testing a two-year trough versus the greenback on Friday after Moody's cut Italy's credit rating by two notches, an unexpected setback for a jittery market already bracing for a weak reading on China's economy.
       
DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0200  China  GDP yy                          Apr   
0200  China  Industrial output yy            Jun    
0200  China  Retail sales yy                 Jun   
0200  China  Urban investment (ytd)yy        Jun  
0430  Japan  Industrial output rev           May   
1230  U.S.   PPI                             Jun      
1930  U.S.   CFTC commitment of traders data Weekly
   
                                                             
  Base metals prices at 0101 GMT
  Metal              Last       Change   Pct Move YTD pct chg
  LME Cu            7535.00    -20.00     -0.26     -0.86
  SHFE CU FUT OCT2    55180        30     +0.05     -0.81
  LME Alum          1884.75      2.75     +0.15     -6.70
  SHFE AL FUT OCT2    15445       -25     -0.16     -2.49
  HG COPPER SEP2     341.55      0.05     +0.01     -0.60
  LME Zinc          1842.00     -1.00     -0.05     -0.16
  SHFE ZN FUT OCT2    14650        05     +0.03     -0.98
  LME Nickel       15850.00     75.00     +0.48    -15.29
  LME Lead          1854.00     -2.00     -0.11     -8.89
  SHFE PB FUT         14810       -60     -0.40     -3.14
  LME Tin          18500.00      0.00     +0.00     -3.65
  LME/Shanghai arb    1006
 
   Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months
   ^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE third month
 
($1 = 6.3733 Chinese yuan)
 

LME Copper Down Ahead of China GDP Figures

Industry News 09:57:23AM Jul 13, 2012 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, July 13 (Reuters) - London copper edged down on Friday as investors closed positions on caution ahead of data on China's second-quarter growth that markets fear could be its slowest in more than three years. The data is due around 0200 GMT.

Although prices may fall should the figures be much lower than expected, some positive data and news out of major economies are expected to put a floor under prices. These include China's better than expected new loan amounts in June, a smaller than expected rise in U.S. jobs benefits claims and the increased possibility of the euro zone rolling out more stimulus policies.
                                               
Fundamentals
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange inched down 0.3 percent to $7,535 per tonne by 0101 GMT, after rising 0.2 percent on Thursday, on track to end the week up 0.2 percent.

The most-active October copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.1 percent to 55,180 yuan ($8,700) per tonne, catching up with London's previous gains, after ending the prior session flat. It is on track to end the week down 0.8 percent.

China will release on Friday GDP figures that are expected to be the weakest since the three months to March 2009 during the global financial crisis, but may raise chances of Beijing further easing its monetary policy.

Chinese banks extended new loans of 919.8 billion yuan ($144.43 billion) in June, hitting a three-month high and raising hopes that policy easing may be gaining some traction to help head off a sharper slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

The number of Americans signing up for new jobless benefits fell to a four-year low last week but an unusual pattern of summer factory shutdowns suggested layoffs might pick up again in coming weeks.

European Central Bank policymakers held out the possibility on Thursday of taking further measures to boost the zone's flagging economy after a cut in their deposit rate to zero showed no sign of jolting banks into lending more money.

Euro zone factories unexpectedly stepped up production in May, but output fell in France and the Netherlands in a further sign that the bloc's sovereign debt crisis is also hurting its stronger economies. 
   
Market News
Asian shares marked time with small gains on Friday ahead of China's second-quarter gross domestic product figures, which could depress risk appetite, while a Moody's downgrade of Italy's credit rating threatened to rekindle worries over Europe's debt crisis.

The euro came close to testing a two-year trough versus the greenback on Friday after Moody's cut Italy's credit rating by two notches, an unexpected setback for a jittery market already bracing for a weak reading on China's economy.
       
DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0200  China  GDP yy                          Apr   
0200  China  Industrial output yy            Jun    
0200  China  Retail sales yy                 Jun   
0200  China  Urban investment (ytd)yy        Jun  
0430  Japan  Industrial output rev           May   
1230  U.S.   PPI                             Jun      
1930  U.S.   CFTC commitment of traders data Weekly
   
                                                             
  Base metals prices at 0101 GMT
  Metal              Last       Change   Pct Move YTD pct chg
  LME Cu            7535.00    -20.00     -0.26     -0.86
  SHFE CU FUT OCT2    55180        30     +0.05     -0.81
  LME Alum          1884.75      2.75     +0.15     -6.70
  SHFE AL FUT OCT2    15445       -25     -0.16     -2.49
  HG COPPER SEP2     341.55      0.05     +0.01     -0.60
  LME Zinc          1842.00     -1.00     -0.05     -0.16
  SHFE ZN FUT OCT2    14650        05     +0.03     -0.98
  LME Nickel       15850.00     75.00     +0.48    -15.29
  LME Lead          1854.00     -2.00     -0.11     -8.89
  SHFE PB FUT         14810       -60     -0.40     -3.14
  LME Tin          18500.00      0.00     +0.00     -3.65
  LME/Shanghai arb    1006
 
   Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months
   ^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE third month
 
($1 = 6.3733 Chinese yuan)