SHANGHAI, Jun. 29 (SMM) –

Supply
According to SMM survey, silicon metal stocks at Huangpu port's Hongkai and Yuehua warehouses are above 25,000 mt this week, and above20,000 mt at two major warehouses in Yunnan's Kunming, up from previous weeks. As silicon metal supply increases amid increasing operating rates at silicon metal producers, silicon metal prices fall again, incurring losses for domestic producers. If silicon metal prices continue to slide, more producers will consider suspending production. At present, producers in Yunnan choose to operate 1-2 furnaces. Producers in districts in Sichuan with low electricity prices report higher operating rates, but others in Sichuan maintain low operating rates. Operating rates at silicon metal producers in Xinjiang are relatively stable this week.

Demand
The average operating rate at domestic polysilicon producers holds stable at 20%, and most producers have little interest in replenishing raw material stocks. Demand from aluminum alloy and organic silicon industries is steady. Due to sliding global economy, overseas polysilicon and organic silicon producers report decreasing business and therefore have falling demand for China's silicon powder.

Forecast
Silicon producers face difficulties in moving goods owing to soft demand downstream and both at home and abroad. According to SMM sources, silicon metal stocks at major warehouses, ports, and silicon metal producers can meet demand for one month. As such, SMM holds the view silicon metal prices will fall further in the coming week.

Mainstream traded prices at Huangpu port will be around RMB 10,900/mt for #553 silicon metal, RMB 11,600/mt for #441 silicon metal, RMB 12,300/mt for #3303 silicon metal and 13,400/mt for #2202 silicon metal in the following week.