SMM Aluminum Price Forecast (Apr. 16-20)

SHANGHAI, Apr. 16 (SMM) -- SHFE three-month aluminum contract prices fell continuously early last week, with prices falling to  RMB 16,100/mt on Wednesday. The entrance of long investors helped SHFE three-month aluminum contract prices reverse previous losses later in the week, but prices still lacked momentum to break through RMB 16,200/mt. Spot discounts narrowed and even changed to slight premiums in East China as the delivery date neared. Downstream consumers still purchased on an as-needed basis, dragging down spot aluminum prices below RMB 16,000/mt. Spot aluminum prices lacked upward momentum to return above RMB 16,000/mt in the face of aggressive selling by cargo-holders, as well as from soft downstream buying interest.

SMM expects SHFE three-month aluminum contract prices will move narrowly around RMB 16,200/mt in the coming week. Tuesday will be the delivery date of SHFE current-month aluminum contracts. Spot discounts should be near RMB 50/mt despite weak consumption, as spot aluminum prices move around RMB 16,000/mt.