SMM Morning Review – 2012/3/6 Tin Market

SHANGHAI, Mar. 6 (SMM) -- LME tin prices for delivery in three months opened at USD 23,800/mt and closed at USD 23,100/mt overnight, down USD 819/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 23,800/mt and the lowest price at USD 22,850/mt. Daily trading volumes were 498 lots, up 326 lots. Positions were 18,653 lots, down 1225 lots. LME tin inventories were 11,225mt, up 190 mt from a day earlier.

During Monday’s Asian trading hours, LME tin prices fell all the way after announcement that China’s GDP growth target fell to 8-year low, triggering market concern over metal demand perspective. During the early European trading hours, LME tin prices fell to around USD 23,000/mt and then fluctuated narrowly around this level during the evening trading hours. The European composite PMI was weak, dampening market sentiment. In response, LME tin prices closed at USD 23,100/mt, down USD 819/mt from a day earlier.

Premier Wen Jiabao revealed at government work report at the opening of the 11t National People's Congress on March 5th, China’s GDP growth target for 2012 was 7.5%, the lowest in 8 years. Since China is the largest base metal consumer in the world, the GDP growth target cut will trigger investors concern over metal demand prospective. In response, base metal prices largely closed with significant losses overnight.

As market concern over economic growth outlook is renewed, it is expected that LME tin prices will remain weak in the short term. SMM expects that LME tin prices face downward risks and will find support at USD 22,300/mt. In China’s spot tin market, spot tin prices are expected to be weighed down due to dampened sentiment, and will move in the RMB 172,000-174,000/mt range on Tuesday.