According to the China Customs, total import and export value in domestic foreign trade in January was USD 272.6 billion, down 7.8% YoY. Export value was USD 149.94 billion, down 0.5%; import value was USD 122.66 billion, down 15.3%, with trade surplus USD 27.28 billion.
The market estimated that the growth of import and export would fell to single digit in January, with the exception of the New Year’s and Chinese New Year holiday, and the final data posted negative growth and was beyond expectations. The growths of domestic import and export, export and import were 6.2%, 10.3% and 1.5% in January without the consideration of Chinese New Year factor. Compared to the growth of exports and imports of 13.4% and 11.8% in last December, the data fell sharply in January this year.
According to official PMI, the new export order index fell below 50% as of October last year, leaving domestic exportation in great challenges. As the new order index is postponed reflecting in import and export data, exports in February should be pessimistic given the new order index in the past three months.
Import and export data posted negative growth in January, which will affect the decision of the government’s regulation. CPI was up 4.5% in January, while foreign trade data fell sharply, leaving monetary policy unclear.