SMM Lead Price Forecast (Dec. 12-16)

SHANGHAI, Dec. 12 (SMM) – The EU summit this past weekend is critical for the future of the Euro. If the EU can achieve substantial results and reach an agreement on EU treaty changes, eurozone market confidence may rebound. However, German leaders opposed proposals concerning the launch of the EFSF and ESM, as well the issuance of common eurozone debt. In this context, markets are still under heavy pressure and will affect movements of LME lead prices. If no actual progress is reported, LME lead prices are likely to fall to USD 2,000/mt this coming week, but falling LME lead inventories may also give support to prices. SHFE lead prices may fall to RMB 15,350/mt influenced by LME lead prices, but will gain support at the daily moving average level.

In China's domestic spot markets, since SHFE lead prices remain weak, selling interest by smelters will fall once financial pressures are moderated. Meanwhile, since downstream demand remains soft, buyers are interested only at lower prices, and transactions will be modest with traded prices at RMB 15,300-15,500/mt.