SMM Pb Output Data Analysis in October

Lead Concentrate
According to China Customs, China imported 118,000 mt of lead concentrate during October, down 26.3% MoM. YTD imports through October were 1.17 million mt, also down 10.16% YoY. The Shanghai/LME lead price ratio was gradually recovering as LME lead prices fell greater than SHFE lead prices during the second half of September. LME lead prices have remained at RMB 2,000/mt since late September, pushing the Shanghai/LME lead price ratio to 7.3-7.8 after China's National Day Holiday, suitable for imports. With no new negative macro-economic news to drag down the market, declines in LME lead prices were limited. In addition, smelters were becoming more dependent on imported ores for winter stock building since domestic lead ores supply is now restricted by cold weather in North China. Lower imported lead concentrate volumes during October were mainly due to China's National Day holiday, which reduced the number of business days. The improved Shanghai/LME lead price ratio during October allowed higher import volumes, but these orders will be reflected in November or December data.
Lead concentrate imported from the US, Peru, Russia and Australia accounted for 70% of total import volumes in October, but import volumes from the US and Russia both fell by 30% MoM, while imports from Australia increased. 
 
Refined Lead
Data from China Customs showed China's imports of refined lead during October totaled 50 mt, down 90.88% MoM. YTD imports through October were 5,598 mt, also down 70.73% YoY. During October, China exported 370 mt of refined lead, a 36-fold increase on a MoM basis. YTD exports of refined lead through October were 6,126 mt, a drop of 67.97% YoY. The 36-fold increase in exports of refined lead was mainly attributed to pent-up exports which were almost zero during September. Imports were restricted by Shanghai/LME lead price ratio, which had been unfavorable for exports, before September and kept YoY import volumes low.