SMM Morning Review – 2011/11/2 Tin Market

SHANGHAI, Nov.2 (SMM) -- LME tin prices opened at USD 21,900/mt and closed at USD 21,700/mt overnight, down USD 300/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 21,948/mt and the lowest price at USD 21,375/mt. Daily trading volumes were 111 lots, down 14 lots. Positions were 16,169 lots, up 59 lots. LME tin inventories were 16,120 mt, down 325 mt from a day earlier.

LME tin prices initially declined but later advanced overnight. The news that the Greek government said it would hold a referendum on the proposed bailout shocked investors, triggering sell-offs of commodities, shares and the euro. In addition, October's PMI from China and manufacture data from the US were both lower than market expectation, weighing down base metal prices. In response, LME tin prices hit a low of USD 21,375/mt. During the evening trading hours, LME tin pared partial losses and closed at USD 21,700/mt, down USD 300/mt from a day earlier.

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced that he would leave the fate of the bailout to voters in his country. Investors fretted that the measure would put Greece's EU membership at risk and worsen the current euro zone crisis. Fitch’s said that if Greek referendum vetoes bailout plan, a forced and disorderly sovereign default of Greece may increase and Greece may exit from the euro. Equity and commodity accelerated declines in European and the US market overnight. Adding to pressure, investors were worried whether or not recent equity and commodity markets can sustain growth amid the abrupt bankruptcy of securities firm MF Global and lower-than-expected manufacture data from China.

Weighed down by many negative factors, SMM expects that LME tin prices will continue to extend weak momentum on Wednesday, and may slip further, with support at USD 21,000/mt. In China’s in spot market, spot tin prices are expected to slip slightly and will move in the RMB 180,500-182,000/mt on Wednesday.