SMM Morning Review - 2011/10/11 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Oct. 11 (SMM) – French and German leaders pledged last week to provide a recapitalization plan for euro zone banks and to inject capital into problematic banks already in dilemma in order to stop worsening of the region’s debt crisis. As a result, the euro surged from previous lows, while the US dollar fell below the 78 mark. US stock prices also surged during the day. With support from above, LME aluminum hit an intraday high of USD 2,264.8/mt during the day, but trimmed gains later due to low investor confidence for the euro zone given disappointing results from previous bailout plans. The metals finally closed at USD 2,255/mt, up USD 46/mt from previous trading day. Transactions during the day were less than 9,000 lots and total positions decreased 544 lots to 823,988 lots.

SMM expects LME aluminum prices to fluctuate between USD 2,210-2,260/mt today. The most active SHFE 1112 aluminum contract is expected to open near the 10-day moving average and struggle between RMB 16,600-16,750/mt. Spot premiums are expected to stay between RMB 80-130/mt over the SHFE current-month aluminum price. Transactions will be moderate as downstream buyers are expected to purchase as-needed.