SMM Morning Review – 2011/9/20 Nickel Market

SHANGHAI, Sept. 20 (SMM) -- LME nickel prices opened at USD 21,600/mt and closed at USD 21,006/mt overnight, down USD 499/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 21,6000/mt and the lowest price at USD 20,898/mt. Daily trading volumes were 2,633 lots, up USD 483 lots. Positions ere 88,137 lot, down 35 lots. Inventories were 98,082 mt, up 432 mt.

LME nickel prices fell rapidly below USD 21,200/mt during the Asian trading hours, and largely moved between USD 21,000-21,200/mt and hit a low of USD 20,898/mt during the European trading hours due to concern over economy in the US and EU. Finally, LME nickel prices closed at USD 21,006/mt, down USD 499/mt from a day earlier. The delay of a new round aid package for Greece and weaker-than-expected US home data disappointed market.

On Monday, no positive result was achieved at the euro zone finance ministers' meeting, and market concerned further tight monetary policy from China, with sluggish sentiment reported. The US President Barack Obama laid out a new package that aims to cut the federal deficit by around USD 4 trillion, pushing up the US dollar and weighing down the euro. Three major European stock indexes were down by over 2%, while the US equity market opened low but rebounded later to pare losses by 1%. Crude oil and gold prices both slumped, and LME base metal prices closed with losses across the board, down over 2%, with LME copper prices even hitting a new intra-year low. Obama’s deficit cut plan was in line with market expectation, but the plan was opposed by both parties in Congress. Close attention should be paid to latest movement of deficit cut plan. 

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) announced on Monday that, the United States house builders confidence was down in September, and the US housing market index was still at level. The NAHB made an announcement that NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index was down 1 point to 14 in September, while market previous estimation was 15.

It is expected that LME nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at low level and may slip further, with resistance between USD 20,800-21,000/mt. In domestic spot nickel market, overnight's LME nickel price slump will drag down spot nickel prices, and spot nickel prices will move in the RMB 156,000-157,500/mt range on Tuesday.