SMM Daily Review – 2011/8/8 Nickel Market

SHANGHAI, Aug. 9 (SMM) -- LME nickel for delivery in three months opened at USD 23,420/mt and closed at USD 22,700/mt last Friday, down by USD 905/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 23,420/mt and the lowest price at USD 22,350/mt. Last weekend, Standard and Poor’s downgrade adjustment of the US credit rating triggered slumps in equity markets in some countries. On Monday, LME nickel prices opened at USD 22,525/mt, and later experienced large-scale sell-offs to hit a low of USD 21,900/mt. Although LME nickel prices rebounded to certain extend later, prices were still extending weak momentum. LME nickel inventories were down by 78 mt to 102,576 mt.

Jinchuan Group cut ex-works nickel prices by RMB 5,000/mt to RMB 169,000/mt, dragging down spot nickel prices. Coupled with price cut from Jinchuan Group, Shanghai nickel spot prices fell further. Traded prices of nickel from Russia were in the RMB 167,000-168,000/mt range, and traded prices of nickel from Jinchuan Group were in the RMB 168,000-169,000/mt, with mixed traded prices reported. Overall trading sentiment was quiet, with modest transactions only for low-priced goods. Wait-and-see sentiment prevailed in market, and deals were largely done among traders.

Based on results of an SMM survey, market players’ expectation was bearish towards LME nickel prices, as commodity market is experience large-scale sell-offs and does not show any sign to recovery following downward adjustment of US credit rating. However, any room for LME nickel prices to fall further will be limited. It is expected LME nickel prices will fall to test USD 22,000/mt, and will find support at USD 21,300/mt.