SMM Morning Review – 2011/8/4 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Aug. 4 (SMM) – US ISM said on August 3rd its non-manufacturing index fell from June’s 53.6 to 52.7 in July, a new low since February 2010 and lower than the expected 53.6. US Department of commerce announced US June factory orders fell by 0.8%, higher than the expected 0.7%, and adjusted June durable goods orders fell by 1.9%. As a result, overall market sentiment turned low due to worries that the sluggish US economy may need more time to recover.

LME aluminum prices fell after opening higher overnight, due to low market confidence caused by weak US economic data. Finally closed price was USD 2,531.75/mt, down USD 42.75/mt or 1.66%. LME aluminum inventories fell by 7,575 mt to 4,429,900 mt. Cancelled warrants were 356,075 mt, accounting for 8.04% of total LME aluminum inventories.

SMM expects aluminum price to keep fluctuating before US employment data for July is released on August 5th. LME aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate between USD 2,520-2,540/mt on August 4th. Most active SHFE 1110 aluminum contract prices are expected to fluctuate between RMB 18,300-18,500/mt. Market transactions will be limited, and spot aluminum quotes are expected to be RMB 18,500-18,550/mt, with premiums of positive RMB 20-50/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum prices.

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