SMM Morning Review – 2011/8/2 Aluminum Market

SHANGHAI, Aug. 2 (SMM) – Though the US debt issue was resolved on August 1, worse-than-expected manufacturing data in Europe, the US and China led to market worries towards demand. As a result, risk aversion sentiment grew, selling pressure for metals prices rose, and the US dollar index surged overnight to 74.291, up 0.75%.

After hitting USD 2,666/mt during Asian trading hours on August 1st, LME aluminum prices fell below USD 2600/mt during European trading hours due to climbing US dollar index. Finally closed price was USD 2,587/mt, down USD 40.5/mt or 1.43%. Total positions rose by 7,244 lots to 718,240 lots.

SMM expects LME aluminum prices to fluctuate between USD 2,570-2,620/mt on August 2nd. Most active SHFE 1110 aluminum contract prices are expected to open lower below RMB 18,500/mt and later fluctuate between RMB 18,300-18,600/mt. Fluctuating SHFE aluminum prices have led to strong wait-and-see attitude among both suppliers and buyers of spot aluminum, and spot premiums are expected to be negative RMB 20/mt to positive RMB 50/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum prices.

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