2011 March Al Imports and Exports Data Analysis

SHANGHAI, May 3 (SMM) --
Alumina:
Customs data shows China’s alumina imports during March were low as a result of higher overseas alumina spot prices and lower domestic alumina spot prices. This in turn caused large numbers of long-term alumina contracts to be resold in international markets. SMM believes these conditions will continue for the foreseeable future.

Aluminum Semis:
Recently, orders received by aluminum semis exporters increased due to rumors that China may lower export tax rebates for aluminum semis. As a result, aluminum semis exports began to increase significantly in March. The lower SHFE/LME aluminum price ratio is also creating incentives for enterprises to export aluminum semis. In this context, SMM predicts China’s exports of aluminum semis will remain high during 2Q.

Scrap Aluminum:
Customs data also shows China’s imports of scrap aluminum were 191,694 mt during March, down 22.69% YoY, while 1Q imports were 559,573 mt, down 17.74% YoY. Overseas aluminum prices have risen steadily since early 2011, but domestic aluminum prices remained weak, causing profits from importing scrap aluminum to shrink. As a result, domestic enterprises showed little interest in importing scrap aluminum. Overseas supply of scrap aluminum declined, but domestic supply of scrap aluminum has increased gradually, also causing imports of scrap aluminum to fall significantly from 2010 levels.

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