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China Al Output Data Analysis in December 2010

iconJan 31, 2011 10:02
Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jan. 31 (SMM) --
Alumina:
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA), China's alumina output was 2.46 million mt during December, with 2010 output at 28.96 million mt, up 21.71% from 2009. Increases in alumina output were directly related to higher aluminum output. China's imports of alumina were 4.31 million mt during 2010, down 16.12% YoY, and due mainly to relatively low alumina prices in China.

Aluminum:
According to the CNIA, China's aluminum output during December was 1.25 million mt, up slightly MoM.  Total aluminum output during 2010 was 16.19 million mt, up 26.07% YoY. The annual total was slightly lower than SMM's forecast of 17.8 million mt, but a growth rate of over 25% indicates strong growth of Chinese aluminum consumption. In addition, China's aluminum output would have grown by over 30% if no energy conservation and emission reduction policies had been implemented by the government during 2H 2010.  More importantly, SMM remains optimistic toward Chinese aluminum demand and expects the high growth rates to continue. 

Aluminum Semis:
According to the CNIA, China's total output of aluminum semis during 2010 was 20.26 million mt. December output was 1.98 million mt, with the average daily output of 64 kt, down 1.01% compared with November's 64.6 kt. Average operating rates at China's aluminum profile producers in December were lower than November levels. Production at manufacturers of aluminum profile for construction in south China was down significantly, since their orders fell steadily due to pessimistic outlook for demand from end-users, as well as tight cash flows which prevented end-users from building stocks before the Chinese New Year holiday.  However, most aluminum plate, sheet, and plate producers reported high operating rates due to strong orders.

 

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