SMM Weekly Forecast on China's EMM Market -Shanghai Metals Market

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SMM Weekly Forecast on China's EMM Market

SMM Insight 05:26:04PM Jun 11, 2010 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jun. 11 (SMM) --

Supply

Operating rates at EMM producers were down to 29.3% at Xiangxi (West Hunan) region in Hunan province and operating rates were only 35% at Tongren region in Guizhou province, as current market prices are lower than production costs. With the intensified implementation of electricity price adjustment at various regions, more and more producers will halt production given that costs are higher than selling prices. Although prices of complementary materials like sulfuric acid and selenium dioxide were slightly lower, any impact from the price changes of complementary materials will be limited. In this context, costs at EMM producers will remain stable at high levels. 

Demand

The number of stainless steel producers to halt production will continue to increase, as market was sluggish and inventories were still high at #200 stainless steel mills. It is expected that purchases from most stainless steel companies will be limited. Ferroalloy industry will further cut production, and purchases from ferroalloy industry will also be limited. Meanwhile, traders also will make limited purchases due to sluggish market situation.

Analysis

Producers will receive support from significantly supply reduction and from high cost pressure, while demand from stainless steel mills and ferroalloy industry will be limited due to sluggish demand. Domestic EMM prices will stagnate under the context that demand for EMM hasn't improved temporarily. It is expected that EMM prices will move around RMB 14,500/mt, waiting for demand to improve in the future.

To contact the writer on this report: jianghanmei@smm.cn

 

Copyright © SMM. All Rights Reserved

None of this material may be used for any commercial or public use in any forms or means, without the prior written consent of SMM. For reproduction issue, please contact us by email: service.en@smm.cn

 

Price

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#1 Refined Cu
Apr.22
49450.0
20.0
(0.04%)
Yangshan Copper Premium(Bill of Lading)
Apr.22
51.5
0.0
(0.00%)
Yangshan Copper Premium(Warehouse Warrant)
Apr.22
50.5
0.0
(0.00%)
Imported Cu Concentrate TC(Cu≥26%,Week)
Apr.19
67.0
-1.5
(-2.19%)
Imported Cu Concentrate TC(Cu≥26%,Month)
Mar.29
73.5
-6.0
(-7.55%)

SMM Weekly Forecast on China's EMM Market

SMM Insight 05:26:04PM Jun 11, 2010 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jun. 11 (SMM) --

Supply

Operating rates at EMM producers were down to 29.3% at Xiangxi (West Hunan) region in Hunan province and operating rates were only 35% at Tongren region in Guizhou province, as current market prices are lower than production costs. With the intensified implementation of electricity price adjustment at various regions, more and more producers will halt production given that costs are higher than selling prices. Although prices of complementary materials like sulfuric acid and selenium dioxide were slightly lower, any impact from the price changes of complementary materials will be limited. In this context, costs at EMM producers will remain stable at high levels. 

Demand

The number of stainless steel producers to halt production will continue to increase, as market was sluggish and inventories were still high at #200 stainless steel mills. It is expected that purchases from most stainless steel companies will be limited. Ferroalloy industry will further cut production, and purchases from ferroalloy industry will also be limited. Meanwhile, traders also will make limited purchases due to sluggish market situation.

Analysis

Producers will receive support from significantly supply reduction and from high cost pressure, while demand from stainless steel mills and ferroalloy industry will be limited due to sluggish demand. Domestic EMM prices will stagnate under the context that demand for EMM hasn't improved temporarily. It is expected that EMM prices will move around RMB 14,500/mt, waiting for demand to improve in the future.

To contact the writer on this report: jianghanmei@smm.cn

 

Copyright © SMM. All Rights Reserved

None of this material may be used for any commercial or public use in any forms or means, without the prior written consent of SMM. For reproduction issue, please contact us by email: service.en@smm.cn