Industrial Metals May Decline on Supply Surplus, Survey Shows -Shanghai Metals Market

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Industrial Metals May Decline on Supply Surplus, Survey Shows

Industry News 10:49:30AM Jan 12, 2010 Source:SMM

LONDON, Jan. 12 -- Copper, lead and other industrial metals may decline from current prices, after doubling last year, partly on expectations that supply will outpace demand, a survey of analysts showed.

Copper for immediate delivery, the best performer last year among contracts of that maturity, will average $7,138 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange in 2010, according to the median of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. While that’s 38 percent more than last year's average, it’s 4 percent less than the closing price on Jan. 8.

Copper supply will outpace demand by 63,500 tons this year, according to the survey. The estimates ranged from a surplus of 460,000 tons to a shortfall of 138,000 tons.

Following is a table of estimates for the 2010 average for cash contracts traded on the LME, in dollars a ton, and forecasts for the balance between supply and demand.

 
Copper
Aluminum
Zinc
Lead
Nickel
Tin
BofA ML
7125
2025
2125
2125
20000
 
Bernstein
5500
1800
1650
 
17100
 
Calyon
8000
2400
2500
2550
20000
20500
Cazenove
7716
2205
2425
 
17637
 
CITIC Sec.
6600
2200
2200
2200
17000
16500
Citigroup
7199
2214
2331
2330
16818
15271
Commerzbank
6500
2000
2200
2150
17400
15650
CPM Group
7250
2380
2620
2400
19000
15640
Credit Suisse
6393
1984
2094
 
17637
 
Essence Sec.
7300
2280
2400
2350
18000
16000
Fairfax
8250
2000
2500
2500
20000
 
JPMorgan
7100
2188
2538
2538
16750
15125
Macquarie
7165
1984
1929
2039
17637
15377
*MF Global
7138
2088
2250
2275
16625
14563
Mitsui Bussan
7017
2080
2290
2198
17870
16250
Natixis
7885
2370
2800
2700
19340
 
RBC Capital
6614
1764
1764
 
15432
 
RBS
6750
2200
1975
2250
14750
15000
SGCIB
7435
2134
2437
2569
21210
15705
Standard Bank
7375
2320
2330
2420
18875
17475
*Stan. Chart.
6700
2125
2090
2250
16500
14375
UBS
7275
2094
1984
1764
22046
13228
UniCredit
6800
Key Words:  Aluminum Al  Aluminum price  copper Cu  copper price  lead Pb  lead price  nickel Ni  nickel price  Tin price  tin Sn  zinc price  zinc Zn 

Industrial Metals May Decline on Supply Surplus, Survey Shows

Industry News 10:49:30AM Jan 12, 2010 Source:SMM

LONDON, Jan. 12 -- Copper, lead and other industrial metals may decline from current prices, after doubling last year, partly on expectations that supply will outpace demand, a survey of analysts showed.

Copper for immediate delivery, the best performer last year among contracts of that maturity, will average $7,138 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange in 2010, according to the median of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. While that’s 38 percent more than last year's average, it’s 4 percent less than the closing price on Jan. 8.

Copper supply will outpace demand by 63,500 tons this year, according to the survey. The estimates ranged from a surplus of 460,000 tons to a shortfall of 138,000 tons.

Following is a table of estimates for the 2010 average for cash contracts traded on the LME, in dollars a ton, and forecasts for the balance between supply and demand.

 
Copper
Aluminum
Zinc
Lead
Nickel
Tin
BofA ML
7125
2025
2125
2125
20000
 
Bernstein
5500
1800
1650
 
17100
 
Calyon
8000
2400
2500
2550
20000
20500
Cazenove
7716
2205
2425
 
17637
 
CITIC Sec.
6600
2200
2200
2200
17000
16500
Citigroup
7199
2214
2331
2330
16818
15271
Commerzbank
6500
2000
2200
2150
17400
15650
CPM Group
7250
2380
2620
2400
19000
15640
Credit Suisse
6393
1984
2094
 
17637
 
Essence Sec.
7300
2280
2400
2350
18000
16000
Fairfax
8250
2000
2500
2500
20000
 
JPMorgan
7100
2188
2538
2538
16750
15125
Macquarie
7165
1984
1929
2039
17637
15377
*MF Global
7138
2088
2250
2275
16625
14563
Mitsui Bussan
7017
2080
2290
2198
17870
16250
Natixis
7885
2370
2800
2700
19340
 
RBC Capital
6614
1764
1764
 
15432
 
RBS
6750
2200
1975
2250
14750
15000
SGCIB
7435
2134
2437
2569
21210
15705
Standard Bank
7375
2320
2330
2420
18875
17475
*Stan. Chart.
6700
2125
2090
2250
16500
14375
UBS
7275
2094
1984
1764
22046
13228
UniCredit
6800
Key Words:  Aluminum Al  Aluminum price  copper Cu  copper price  lead Pb  lead price  nickel Ni  nickel price  Tin price  tin Sn  zinc price  zinc Zn