Macro Roundup (Dec 3)

SHANGHAI, Dec 3 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The safe-haven dollar sank to a fresh 2-1/2-year low in choppy trading on Wednesday, pressured once again by expectations of further fiscal stimulus for the United States.

U.S. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer on Wednesday rejected the latest Republican coronavirus aid plan. He described it as an “inadequate, partisan proposal” that would help shield businesses from liability lawsuits but fail to help workers hurt by the pandemic.

That came a day after a proposed bipartisan coronavirus pandemic-related economic stimulus package on Tuesday worth $908 billion lifted the market’s appetite for risk and pushed the dollar to its lowest level since April 2018.

That trend continued on Wednesday, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Republican President Donald Trump would sign a pandemic relief deal proposed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

On Wall Street, U.S. stock futures held steady on Wednesday evening as investors awaited news on stimulus negotiations and the vaccine approval process.

Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were little changed, while those for the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.1%.

The move in futures comes after a relatively quiet day on Wall Street as investors monitored developments in Washington about a possible stimulus bill. During Wednesday’s session, the Dow and S&P 500 gained 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1%. The slight move higher for the S&P 500 resulted in a new record high.

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday as the market awaited a pact from producers on output, which many traders expect will continue to be reined in, and Britain’s approval of a COVID-19 vaccine boosted hopes for a demand recovery.

Traders were watching the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other allies, known as OPEC+, which postponed talks on next year’s oil output policy to Thursday from Tuesday, according to sources.

Gold firmed near an over one-week high on Wednesday as prospects of a U.S. coronavirus relief package reinforced its appeal as a hedge against likely inflation and sent the dollar to a multi-year trough.

On the vaccine front, the U.K. became the first country to grant emergency approval to the Covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech. Regulators in the U.S. are expected to make determinations on that vaccine and a similar vaccine from Moderna later this month, possibly allowing distribution to begin before the start of 2021.

Still, the rollout of the vaccine is expected to take many months as pharmaceutical companies ramp up production for the global population, with many health experts warning of a tough winter in the United States. The U.S. now has more than 100,000 patients hospitalized with Covid-19, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project, which is run by journalists at The Atlantic. That is significantly above the peak during the first wave in the spring, when cases were concentrated in the northeastern part of the country.

On the data front, U.S. private payrolls increased by 307,000 jobs in November, the ADP National Employment Report showed, lower than economists’ forecast for a 410,000 rise in new jobs. Data for October, though, was revised up to show 404,000 jobs added instead of the initially reported 365,000.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 679,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 27, according to data from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, defying the build the American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday. U.S. oil production rose 100,000 barrels per day last week to its highest level since May, the EIA data showed.

German retail sales rebounded in October, before the country re-entered a nationwide lockdown in a bid to curb a resurgence in coronavirus cases. Italy’s unemployment rate climbed to 9.8% in October from an upwardly revised 9.7% in September, the national statistics bureau said Wednesday.

Here’s a look at what’s on tap:

China: Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index for November

Eurozone: October retail sales

The U.S.: Initial jobless claims in the week ended November 28, ISM non-manufacturing PMI for November