[SMM 분석] 아프리카 리튬 인도 가능 공급, 여전히 허가와 인프라에 달려 있어

[SMM Analysis] ESS battery cell prices edged down this week, tracking raw material fluctuations, but with supply-demand conditions remaining tight, room for a sharp price pullback is limited. China's ESS battery production rose 4.92% MoM in September, a slower pace than August, mainly due to the ramp-up progress of large-capacity cell production lines and supply disruptions for some upstream raw materials. Entering Q4, as large-cell production lines continue to ramp up, production efficiency improves, and raw material supply disruptions gradually ease, the industry's production schedule growth is expected to rebound. Current enterprise production plans already reflect a trend of gradually accelerating growth in October-November, and overall production activity for ESS battery cells remains at a relatively high level.

Raw material side, lithium carbonate prices accelerated their bottoming process this week, with the 130,000 yuan/mt and 125,000 yuan/mt levels falling in quick succession. After pre-holiday stockpiling ended, the decline in futures dragged spot prices lower, and today prices were quoted at 119,000–127,000 yuan/mt, hitting a new low for this pullback. Nickel sulphate prices broke below the 30,000 yuan/mt mark, and cobalt sulphate prices extended their decline.