[SMM Analysis] US copper tariff remains unresolved: near-month arbitrage fades, long-term siphoning expectations resurface
[SMM Analysis] No news on US refined copper tariffs was seen by midday on September 29, but this does not mean the policy has been scrapped. The COMEX-LME price spread has narrowed, the nearby physical arbitrage window has closed, and the US siphoning effect has temporarily weakened. If the escalating tariff expectations of 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028 persist, traders may still ship copper to the US ahead of time. Over the past year, COMEX inventory rose from around 320,000 short tons to near 770,000 short tons, while China's social inventory fell to 78,300 mt, and the SMM #1 copper cathode premium once approached 1,400 yuan/mt. With tariffs still unresolved, will this drive a resurgence of long-term US siphoning and further exacerbate the global misallocation of copper resources?