정광 및 괴광은 강세 유지, 철광석 펀더멘털은 변함없음 [SMM 철광석 일일 리뷰]

Iron ore futures edged lower today. The DCE front-month contract I2609 settled at RMB 705/tonne, down 0.21% from the previous trading session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port were broadly unchanged from the prior trading day.

[SMM Analysis] Futures Weakness and Sluggish Off-Season Demand; Stainless Steel Inventory Posts Slight Buildup and Remains Stable on Limited Arrivals SMM, August 13 – This week, stainless steel social inventory shifted from prior destocking to a slight buildup, with the overall inventory level basically stable and off-season inventory pressure rising at the margin. Total inventories in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan edged up from 915,200 mt on August 6, 2026, to 915,900 mt in the latest period, up 0.08% WoW. The buildup was modest, and overall inventory maintained a stable trend. This week, the stainless steel market continued to follow the traditional off-season pattern. Early recovery signals ahead of the September-October peak season had yet to emerge, and rigid demand from end-users remained weak. During the week, SS futures pulled back repeatedly. Wait-and-see sentiment strengthened among traders and downstream users, and most downstream end-users maintained a need-based, hand-to-mouth purchasing pattern. Spot transactions in the market were generally weak, and the destocking efficiency of cargoes was low, creating the core fundamental pressure behind the inventory buildup. On the supply and distribution side, there were temporary offsetting factors. At the beginning of this week, weather disruptions from Typhoon Dolphin constrained logistics shipments and the pace of spot arrivals in east China. The pace of market supply replenishment slowed, effectively offsetting the incremental buildup caused by weak demand, leaving social inventory only slightly higher this week and broadly stable overall. Overall, weak end-use demand in the off-season and weaker futures that dragged on market transactions were the core causes of this week's slight inventory buildup. Meanwhile, typhoon-related disruptions reduced arrivals and effectively curbed any sharp inventory accumulation, ultimately resulting in a slight buildup with overall stability. At this stage, the off-season fundamentals of stainless steel still dominate the market, and end-use demand shows no signs of recovery yet...

주력 HRC 계약은 오늘 횡보하며 3,233에 마감해 전일 대비 0.34% 하락했다. 공급 측면에서 이번 주 HRC 생산량은 306만 1,300톤으로 전주 대비 1만 2,500톤 증가했다. 신규 생산 재개가 늘었고 다음 주에도 생산 증가가 예상되지만 절대 수준은 여전히 낮다. 수요 측면에서는 비수기여서 실수요 매수가 주로 저가에 이뤄졌고 투기 심리도 약했다. 원료 측면에서는 몽골의 연료 부족이 완화되며 원료탄·코크스의 상승 동력이 약해졌다. 수요 측면에서 바닥 기대가 나타나기 시작했지만, 단기적으로는 심리 영향이 분명히 더 크고 원가 상승 지지도 약해지고 있다. 종합적으로 태풍 영향으로 이번 주 HRC 재고는 일시적으로 감소했지만, 시장은 비수기 재고 변곡점이 아직 나타나지 않았다고 전반적으로 보고 있으며, 이에 따라 선물도 이 재료에 반응하지 않았다. 단기적으로 판재류는 원가에 맞춰 횡보할 가능성이 크다. 몽골 연료 문제 해결에 따른 원료탄·코크스 재고 감소와 중국의 공급 회복 여부를 주시할 필요가 있다.